UConn And Jimmy Butler College Basketball Matchup Analysis And Predictions

The Huskies enter this game on a five-game winning streak, having regained momentum after a challenging start to the season. Their recent successes include impressive wins over Baylor and Gonzaga, positioning them at No. 11 in the AP rankings.

Conversely, Butler has encountered a tough patch, suffering four consecutive losses as Big East play begins. This challenging streak features three defeats to ranked teams and a damaging loss at home to North Dakota State.

College Basketball Odds: UConn-Butler Odds

UConn: -5.5 (-114)

Moneyline: -235

Butler: +5.5 (-106)

Moneyline: +195

Over: 144.5 (-110)

Under: 144.5 (-110)

How to Watch UConn vs. Butler

Time: Noon ET / 9 a.m. PT

TV: Peacock

Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win

Butler is facing one of the toughest stretches in its schedule this season. The loss to North Dakota State was crucial, as the Bulldogs now transition directly from losses against Wisconsin and Marquette into a clash with the two-time defending champions, all within just eight days. Historically, Butler has never secured a victory against UConn in nine meetings.

Even though Butler’s recent losses have come against solid opponents, their situation is worse than it appears. The Bulldogs lost their starting center, Augusto Cassia, during the game against North Dakota State, prompting coach Thad Matta to rethink strategies. He initially had to rely on the less mobile fifth-year player, Andre Screen, against Wisconsin but opted for a 6-foot-3 guard, Landon Moore, in the following match against Marquette.

While it remains uncertain which player Matta will choose to start, one thing is clear: the Bulldogs will face challenges. UConn’s frontcourt, featuring Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed, and Liam McNeeley, may compel Matta to reconsider small-ball tactics, creating significant mismatches that the Huskies can exploit offensively. Screen and Butler have had difficulties with perimeter-oriented big men, struggling all season to contain offensive rebounds and points allowed to centers, placing them among the bottom in the nation in those categories.

Why Butler Will Cover The Spread/Win

Despite Butler’s current losing streak, one positive aspect is that they have not been completely overwhelmed in their recent games. Although they have trailed consistently, they were just minutes away from making the Marquette game competitive. As favorites, the Bulldogs have a record of 3-4 against the spread (ATS), but they perform slightly better as underdogs, boasting a 3-2 ATS record.

Although Butler struggles to match UConn’s up-tempo style, they must start strong. While UConn has shown dominance recently, their defensive game has been inconsistent. The Huskies have been particularly vulnerable from beyond the arc, allowing opponents a league-worst 39.2 percent shooting from three-point range. Butler’s top three scorers — Jahmyl Telfort, Pierre Brooks, and Patrick McCaffrey — shine when they can establish a strong perimeter game.

Butler has had its own issues with defense lately, yet they remain top-notch at defending the three, allowing just 29 percent shooting from opponents in that category. Their flexible defensive strategy allows them to restrict assists to only 10.8 per game. In matchups where UConn’s ball movement is essential to their offense, they have faltered, as they generate the third-most assists per game in the nation, contrary to Butler’s isolation-based defensive style.

Final UConn-Butler Prediction & Pick

Determining which version of either team will appear is challenging. Butler possesses the ability to defeat teams like Mississippi State, but they can also stumble against lower-tier teams such as Austin Peay and North Dakota State. Similarly, UConn can display either elite talent or a more average performance at times.

Cassia’s injury may not have significantly affected Butler against Wisconsin or Marquette, but it will undoubtedly influence their performance against UConn. Either Screen or sophomore Boden Kapke will need to be on the court consistently, and neither can physically contend long-term. With Reed, boasting 34 offensive rebounds this season, Butler will face a tough challenge on the glass. Unless the Bulldogs find their shooting from deep, this game could tilt heavily in UConn’s favor.

Final UConn-Butler Prediction & Pick: UConn -5.5 (-114)